Is news really news if it had already been anticipated? I'm referring to May's housing numbers, which everyone anticipated and which surprised few.  Existing home sales rose 12 percent compared to April's numbers.

Under more conventional circumstances I'd be tempted to break out the bubbly on such a bullish report, but we all know why home sales under contract spiked in April – impending expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credits.  The credits were a useful band-aid, to be sure, but they were no panacea.  They simply moved demand forward without aggregately increasing it, and they really moved it forward in April.

I'm even less tempted to break out the bubbly when vetting the latest national pricing data.  On that front, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index showed that prices of single-family homes were down 0.5 percent between February and March, the sixth consecutive month-over-month decline. Year-over-year prices are up 2.3 percent nationally.  Meanwhile, the median price on existing homes increased 4 percent to $173,100 in April while the median price on new homes tumbled 9.6% to $198,400, as those who took advantage of the tax credits did so with cheaper homes.

This isn't to say that I am discouraged.  I think the market is simply in a holding pattern at the moment, with inventory levels holding relatively steady at an 8-month supply on existing homes and at a 6-month supply on new homes.  Some reservation is understandable; no one is really sure how the housing market will react to standing on its own heading into the prime buying season.  I remain optimistic, because I think the data suggests it will keep moving forward.

Meanwhile, the refinance market remains robust, and why shouldn't it with rates on 30-year-fixed rate loans regularly found below 5 percent and rates on 15-year fixed-rate loans regularly found below 4.5 percent?  For many borrowers, it's an opportune time to save a lot of money over the long haul by refinancing to a 15-year loan from a 30-year loan.

Of course I'll warn once again that good deals don't last forever. The turmoil in Europe has helped push rates down a few basis points, but rumblings for change are emanating from the Federal Reserve.  Recent minutes of the latest Fed meeting show a growing number of its banks want to raise the rate charged to banks on emergency loans, which is a sign of confidence in the economic recovery.  It's worth remembering that as the economy improves, the opportunity to get a bargain-basement mortgage rate and home price decreases.